In Steven Pinker's excellent book "How the Mind Works", he describes how people are bad at probability assessments, but are much better at frequency assessments (pg 348). It almost comes out and says that the brain is frequentist and not Bayesian, and it certainly implies it. He outlines how badly people do on the classic rare disease problem: "frequency of a disease is 0.01%, you take a test that is 99.99% accurate (false positives at 0.01%), you test positive. What is your chance of having the disease". People, even educated people (even in the medical fields) get this one wrong a lot.
["Teaching Energy Balance using Round Numbers: A Quantitative Approach to the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming"]: http://web.bryant.edu/~bblais/pdf/energy_balance.pdf