I've been reading Leonard Mlodinow's "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives", and he describes a set of experiments which I had heard of before but never gave too much thought to. The experiments deal with people making probability assessments about a series of statements. The experiments were done by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky[cite here]. It starts with a description:
Imagine a woman named Linda, thirty-two years old, single, out-spoken, and very bright. In college she majored in philosophy. While a student she was deeply concerned with discrimination and social justice and participated in antinuclear demonstrations.
Linda is active in the feminist movement: 2.1Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement: 4.1Linda is a bank teller: 6.2
Linda owns an IHOP franchiseLinda had a sex-change and is now LarryLinda had a sex-change and is now Larry and owns an IHOP franchise