Ecology: Notes from "The Great Warming"

Bryant University
Ecology: Theory and Applications (Sci351)
Lecture Resources

Notes from "The Great Warming"

Overview of Atmospheric Changes
Consumption of carbon dioxide represents "the stored energy of a billion summers"
Equilibrium: Flow of carbon from atmosphere to forests and back to atmosphere (nature's "greenhouse effect")
30% more carbon in the atmosphere (by 2000) - human effects
Comparison: Venus (96% of atmosphere is carbon dioxide); Earth (about 1%)
Small change = great effect (increase of half a degree Celsius has already resulted in droughts, heat waves, and flooding in the U.S.

Effects of Development Worldwide
Need to have "development paths" for developing nations that skip a hundred years of fossil fuel burning
May be able to avoid "forcing" climate change to a "tipping point" beyond which we can't reverse the effects
Example 1: In China the growth of car ownership is 20% per year, but still low compared to the U.S.
China has 4 times the population of the U.S. (similar land mass)
What happens as the number of cars increase in China?
Example 2: In India 600 million people are still without electricity (India is growing faster than China)
What happens as the electrification is expanded? Especially if coal is the primary fuel used to produce electricity?

How Well Can We Predict Climate Change?
Farmer's Almanac predicting weather in the U.S. since 1792 (with 80% accuracy) - sell 4 million copies/year
Canadian Climate Model - poses "what if" questions, model is tested by running it backwards (to "prove" the past
Based on the Canadian Climate Model - Agreement that (1) the rates of carbon dioxide addition will lead to warming; and
(2) the worst effects will be in the northern regions

<>Environmental Changes Worldwide
ARCTIC - Snow surfaces are white and reflect light; water is dark and absorbs more light (warming further)
Positive feedback loop
Gulf Stream Conveyor Belt (warm water flows north and drops deep to ocean floor and flows back south again)
Britain - involving citizens in recording subtle changes in environmental patterns (leaf formation, bird migration, etc.)
South America - El Nino effects are heightened - increased rain, intense storms, increase in waterborne diseases like cholera
Increased coastal storms on Fire Island (1992)
Reduced vegetation in the Southwest (loss of the Pinon forests over millions of acres due to drought)
Global Food Production changed - variable climatic conditions may alter land productivity
In general - more drought than rain expected, drop in aquifers (already occurring), land loss (e.g., 100 yards/15 minutes in LA)
Huge smog areas in Southeast Asia (in 2002 a toxic cloud 3 miles high that lasted 5 months)
Increase in asthma cases (28% in males, 18% in females, from 1980 to 1990)
More carbon dioxide linked with increased pollen production, leading to increase in allergens

Action Needed
Many people locked in "climate denial"
Presently better consensus about existence of problems, but still lack of clarity about how to move forward
Religious groups focusing on "creation care" (taking care of the earth) - a segment of the Republican base
Medical authorities expressing more concern about cancer statistics (e.g., breast cancer rate = 1/8 women)
Awareness that individuals CAN make a difference
Example: If we changed 5 light fixtures/U.S.family = 8 million cars = 5 power plants that could come off the grid
Need to calculate the "price of waiting" to change
New Home Designs (EcoCite - use geothermal heating and window overhangs)
Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars (not yet green if you extract Hydrogen from fossil fuels)
Wind Power (could supply more than 20% of energy)
Synthetic Trees to absorb carbon dioxide (or maybe just more real trees)
Ethanol (E85 - 85% ethanol-15% gasoline) - Best to use grain and corn byproducts, or grasses

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Copyright
Gaytha A. Langlois, Ph.D., 2003
Bryant College, Smithfield, RI 02917
e-mail: langlois@bryant.edu
Last Updated: February 2008